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STOCK SUMMARY
Nasdaq 2778.790.00
S&P 500 1295.22-9.64
Armstrong 43.330.00
The Bon-Ton Sto 3.700.00
Harley-Davidson "45.27
Harsco 18.880.00
Hershey 67.410.00
Penn National G 44.520.00
Glatfelter Comm 14.930.00
Rite Aid 1.210.00
Unilife 4.010.00
Weis Markets Inc"44.63
 
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Low 64 °F
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September 23. 2011 4:32PM

Volatility no reason to forswear stocks, Central Pa. advisers say

By Tim Stuhldreher

If you think the stock market has been gyrating more and more of late, you're right. And don't hold your breath waiting for it to stop.


"I think volatility is here to stay," said Fred Fischer, president and senior portfolio manager at Fischer Financial Services Inc., an independent money management firm based in Susquehanna Township, just north of Harrisburg.

The S&P 500 index has seen multiple intraday moves of 3 to 4 percent in recent weeks, The New York Times noted in a Sept. 11 article. Those large moves are significantly more frequent than in previous eras, according to the paper's analysis of data going back to 1962.

Among the possible reasons the Times suggested: more computerized trading, the quicker pace of news, and today's unusual levels of global economic turmoil.

Whatever its cause, market volatility can jangle even the hardiest nerves. Nevertheless, investors should hang in there and focus on the long term, local advisers recommended.

"Keep your head. Maintain your strategy," said Rick Rodgers, CEO of Rodgers & Associates, a wealth management and retirement planning firm in suburban Lancaster.

Advisers must educate their clients about what to expect, said Mark Vergenes, president of Lancaster financial planning and investment advisory firm Mirus Financial Partners.

"My clients are not getting freaked out by the volatility," he said.

Investors seeking to leave stocks don't have any obviously better choices, said James Dailey, chief investment officer at Team Financial Managers in Susquehanna Township.

Most alternatives are even riskier, he said. The main exception is bonds, but rates remain extremely low.

"Stocks on a relative basis look pretty attractive," he said.

Despite all the market turmoil, the majority of major corporations beat their earnings forecasts in the second quarter, Fischer said. After-tax corporate profits reached an annual seasonally adjusted rate of $1.5 trillion in the second quarter, a record, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

"Stay the course, be in the market for the long term and make sure you're in the right risk level," Fischer said.

Fischer Financial seeks companies with a clear competitive edge, plenty of cash and international exposure, Fischer said.

Managing risk involves diversifying, of course — spreading one's money across a mix of economic sectors and asset classes.

Mirus typically incorporates seven categories of investment in the portfolios it builds for clients, Vergenes said. One key category: global real estate. Most people don't realize the extent to which overseas real estate is booming as former Third World countries develop consumer economies with burgeoning middle classes, Vergenes said.

Rodgers recommended routine portfolio rebalancing. At set periods, investors should return their portfolio to a predetermined stock-bond ratio, buying stocks with bond returns or vice versa as needed.

If your stocks have appreciated faster than your bonds, use some of those gains to buy bonds; if the reverse is true, use bond gains to buy stocks. The practice not only ensures investors maintain their desired risk level, it shifts already realized gains to the asset class better poised for future returns, without requiring guesses about market timing.

"The market tells us when to buy and sell," he said.

Opinions differed strongly on the importance of gold and commodities.

Team Financial is bullish on both, Dailey said, alluding to the same global trends that Vergenes cited. Rapid growth of demand in the developing world augurs a future in which commodities are scarcer and more valuable, Dailey said.

As for gold, "it's trading like a safe-haven currency," he said. Given sluggish recoveries in Europe and America, a competitive devaluation battle cycle could break out if multiple countries try to boost exports by weakening their currencies, he suggested. If that happens, "you could see gold going to $5,000," he said — far above its price (at press time) of about $1,800 an ounce.

"Theoretically, you can't put a top on gold," he said.

Rodgers, however, said there is no reason for high gold prices "other than fear."

"I see gold as being a bubble," he said, adding that in his view, gold and commodities plays are forms of speculation, not investment.

"We never invest in commodities," he said.

Fischer disputed the notion that gold is an effective inflation hedge, saying it would have had to rise to $2,400 an ounce this year to match its value in 1980. Still, both he and Vergenes said gold and commodities can be appropriate additions to a well-diversified portfolio.

Despite the U.S. economy's many daunting problems — high unemployment, record government deficits and financial turmoil in Europe — local advisers said they're confident in the country's resilience.

"I have total faith the market is going to continue to improve itself," Rodgers said.

Throughout history, when times got tough, the U.S. has always pulled itself together and done what's right, Fischer said.

"Long-term, I'm bullish," he said.


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